Stay-At-Home Macro

The June FOMC minutes laid out two scenarios, and the committee is split right down the middle on the outlook for inflation.

Independence, inflation, and communication

Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost.

Warsh says he wants one, inflation demands it, and the dot plot is how we'd see it.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently argued for alternative ways of looking at inflation, such as trimmed means or medians, which, in his words, capture the “underlying inflation rate” and “not … the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef.” Before evaluating his claims, it is useful to explore the distribution of inflation and see what appears to be driving inflation.

A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path.

Today, May 15, is Jay Powell’s final day as Fed Chair.

April's Jobs Day is Friday.

After eight years, Wednesday will be the last time that Powell steps up to the podium as Fed Chair.

Tuesday, April 21, is a day Kevin Warsh has long awaited: his Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair.

Expect the unexpected has become the most useful rule of thumb for the economy.

It’s three weeks into the war in Iran, and when the dust settles after today’s Fed meeting, the potential economic costs are likely to feel more real.

Events are moving fast in the Middle East.

U.S. economic statistics are not being manipulated, but underinvestment has intensified.

Today’s employment report confirmed that payroll growth stalled last year.

Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.

Last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair.

Another week, another attack on the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration.

As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.

Today should have been Jobs Day, with the November employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the federal statistical agencies are still working through delays due to the 43-day government shutdown that ended last month.