Silver Bulletin Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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How popular is Donald Trump?
by Nate Silver on April 16, 2026Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
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How popular is the Iran War?
by Nate Silver on April 16, 2026Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.
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Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
by Nate Silver on April 16, 2026Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
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"Engagement" is a dumb metric
by Nate Silver on April 14, 2026An algorithm doesn’t always tell you what content people truly find valuable. Plus more from my chat with Mike Solana.
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“AI polls” are fake polls
by Eli McKown-Dawson on April 11, 2026But they might be useful as something else: models.
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How popular is Elon Musk?
by Nate Silver on April 10, 2026Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
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Nuclear brinkmanship usually works. It’s also incredibly dangerous.
by Nate Silver on April 8, 2026A small chance of a catastrophic outcome isn’t something to shrug off.
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COOPER women's NCAA basketball ratings
by Nate Silver on April 7, 2026Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 363 women's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
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COOPER men's NCAA basketball ratings
by Nate Silver on April 7, 2026Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 365 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
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Iran is Trump's biggest political mistake
by Nate Silver on April 6, 2026
Narrow mandates and "transformative" presidencies aren’t a good political match.
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Social media has become a freak show
by Nate Silver on April 5, 2026The ecosystem is incredibly unhealthy, especially on Twitter. But if it dies, good riddance.
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2026 March Madness Predictions
by Nate Silver on April 5, 2026Silver Bulletin odds for the men's NCAA tournament, powered by our new COOPER ratings.
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2026 Women's March Madness Predictions
by Nate Silver on April 4, 2026Silver Bulletin odds for every round of the tournament, powered by our new COOPER ratings.
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⏜ Our radical plan to replace the NBA draft ⏜
by Nate Silver on April 1, 2026What if you could penalize tanking, decrease randomness, reduce perverse incentives, and give teams more control over their fate? There's one big catch: you have to ditch the draft for an auction.
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Trump approval just hit the 30s. Can his numbers get any lower?
by Nate Silver on March 30, 2026$4 gas is a big problem for Trump. But broken campaign promises and series of self-inflicted wounds are eroding support even among Trump’s base.
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PRISM 2026 NBA draft rankings
by Joseph George on March 28, 2026Who should be the #1 pick? Our new NBA draft model says teams still overvalue potential and undervalue production.
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How our PRISM NBA draft model works
by Joseph George on March 28, 2026
It's a machine learning model ... but with a lot of human curation.
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SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting?
by Nate Silver on March 23, 2026So far, the sports betting backlash has a bipartisan flavor. Plus, why I don’t use prediction markets in my models. And are Democrats going to blow the California governor's race?
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The TACO trade meets the fog of war
by Nate Silver on March 17, 2026Counting on Trump to "always chicken out" is a risky strategy. And war in the Middle East is a different game.
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Will Iran break MAGA?
by Eli McKown-Dawson on March 11, 2026So far, there’s not much erosion in Trump’s polling among Republicans. But elite opinion can trickle down to the party base.
