Silver Bulletin Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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Can the establishment stop Abdul El-Sayed?
by Eli McKown-Dawson on July 16, 2026
Haley Stevens has rebounded since Mallory McMorrow dropped out. But polls of both the Michigan primary and the general election don't tell a consistent story.
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How popular is Donald Trump?
by Nate Silver on July 16, 2026
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
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Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
by Nate Silver on July 16, 2026
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
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How popular is the Iran War?
by Nate Silver on July 16, 2026
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for the ongoing conflict.
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2026 World Cup: Spain vs. Argentina prediction
by Nate Silver on July 15, 2026
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Odds for all 48 teams and 104 matches, powered by 100,000 simulations from PELE, Silver Bulletin's new soccer model.
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PELE International Football Rankings ⚽
by Nate Silver on July 15, 2026
What happens when you blend 150+ years of soccer history with player market values into a brand-new model? Rankings, ratings and match projections for all 211 FIFA teams.
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12 questions for the center-left
by Nate Silver on July 14, 2026
The center-left offers an alternative to both the left and the Democratic “establishment.” But it’s losing influence — and struggling to define itself.
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How popular is Elon Musk?
by Nate Silver on July 14, 2026
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
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The Silver Bulletin World Cup quarterfinals preview
by Joseph George on July 9, 2026
PELE’s forecast for the final eight: France leads a tight field, Argentina has the easiest path, and Norway has a real chance to crash the party.
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The game theory of replacing Graham Platner
by Nate Silver on July 9, 2026
20 thoughts on who really has the leverage in Maine — and what Democrats should do next.
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Don't invest your political capital in sketchy people
by Nate Silver on July 6, 2026
Political parties don’t get to wait for courtroom certainty. Graham Platner has given Democrats far too many reasons to cut their losses.
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America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average.
by Eli McKown-Dawson on July 3, 2026
Most Americans still love their country, but patriotism is in sharp decline.
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Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
by Joel Wertheimer on June 29, 2026
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
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The World Cup knockout round is here. Which team got the luckiest draw?
by Nate Silver on June 28, 2026
It's not the United States — though the USMNT's path is pretty favorable, too.
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Are England the New York Knicks?
by Joseph George on June 27, 2026
Another team just ended a half-century curse by becoming more than the sum of its parts. England's always had the talent — can it finally do the same?
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The Bucks traded Giannis too late
by Joseph George on June 25, 2026
The deal is "ehh, fine" for both Miami and Milwaukee. But Giannis to Boston would have had a seismic effect on the league.
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What all 48 World Cup teams have at stake
by Nate Silver on June 24, 2026
Only 7 teams have clinched advancement --- and almost everyone has a lot to play for in their final match.
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What is Gavin Newsom doing?
by Nate Silver on June 23, 2026
Losing support in polls, the governor is leaning into his role as the avatar of an unpopular Democratic establishment.
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How Trump conquered the Republican Party
by Nate Silver on June 20, 2026
My interview with Seth Masket on his new book about the GOP
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A bigger World Cup is a better World Cup
by Nate Silver on June 17, 2026
This tournament has been great so far. But 48 teams create an awkward bracket. A 64-team World Cup is the inevitable outcome — and maybe the better one.






