Sinocism

Where is DeepSeek’s new model? - The world was expecting DeepSeek’s new model around the Lunar New Year. Is it delayed because, as some rumors suggest, they have run into problems? Or because, as Reuters reports, they are working with Huawei and other domestic chip firms to optimijze performance, even though it was trained on Nvidia chips? Regardless of what is going on, between the apparent delay, the accusations by OpenAI and Anthropic of distillation attacks, and the US government claims that it was actually built on smuggled Nvidia chips, US tech stocks are probably inncoulated against another “DeepSeek moment” shock.

PRC actors using OpenAI for information operations - OpenAI issued a report titled Disrupting Malicious Uses of AI that documented several case studies, including some by PRC actors. One targeted Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi, another went after 李老师不是你老师 “Teacher Li is not your teacher”. These look to be more examples of what CAC head Zhuang wrote in that Study Times article, that “the Internet is an important position for ideological guidance, moral cultivation, and cultural inheritance; it is the main position, main battlefield, and forefront of ideological struggle”.

Welcome to the Year of the Horse. 1. Ramping up economic coercion on Japan - The Ministry of Commerce started its Year of the Horse work with a ratcheting up of economic coercion against Japan. Today they placed 20 Japanese entities on its export control list, banning the export of dual-use items, and another 20 Japanese entities on a watch list. PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a Japan expert by training, is sounding increasingly unhinged about Japan, so these latest actions should not be a surprise. In a Q&A following his speech at the Munich Security Conference he said: the erroneous remarks made by Japanese leaders on the Taiwan issue have exposed that Japan’s ambitions to invade and colonize Taiwan remain undiminished, and the specter of resurgent militarism still lingers. 日本领导人在台湾问题上的错误言论，暴露了日本侵略殖民台湾的野心未泯、复活军国主义的阴魂不散 Japan still wants to invade and colonize Taiwan? Seriously? Japan has not yet responded with any retaliatory measures. Will Prime Minister Takaichi continue to just absorb this increasing coercion, or will we start seeing actions around some semiconductor-related items on which the PRC is heavily reliant? And will the Trump Administration say anything to support Japan, now or when PM Takaichi visits the US in March?

Bloomberg reports that OpenAI has sent a memo to the House Select Committee on China accusing DeepSeek of surreptitiously distilling OpenAI models to “free-ride on the capabilities developed by OpenAI and other US frontier labs.” I thought this was an open secret? And yes, I understand the irony of industrial-scale copyright violating OpenAI accusing another firm of IP theft. But if true, it does dent the narrative around DeepSeek, especially as everyone expects their next model within the next few days, which is probably why OpenAI sent (and leaked?) this memo now. But it is not just DeepSeek; Kimi’s latest model was caught referring to itself as Claude.

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the reports that the PRC is threatening to scuttle Trump’s visit to Beijing over a second arms package from the U.S. to Taiwan, including thoughts on next moves from the U.S., how this arms shipment happened, and the PLA’s dangerous aerial maneuvers around Taiwan. From there: Reactions to the news that Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in Hong Kong prison, a State Council white paper on “One Country Two Systems,” and Sanae Takaichi’s party secures a supermajority in Japan three months after the PRC’s pressure campaign over her Taiwan comments. At the end: The propaganda value of AI models, and a word about hockey and the Winter Olympics.

The comments in the brief readout that are getting the most attention are: Xi pointed out that the past year was very unusual and extraordinary. The People’s Army deepened its political rectification, effectively responded to various risks and challenges, and underwent a revolutionary tempering in the anti-corruption struggle. The vast number of officers and soldiers, especially those at the grassroots level, have firmly listened to and followed the Party, loyally fulfilled their duties, focused on overcoming difficulties, and successfully completed various tasks. They are completely tough and trustworthy.

Wang Huning stated that it is necessary to adhere to the one-China principle and the “1992 Consensus,” unite the vast number of Taiwan compatriots, firmly support patriotic reunification forces on the island, resolutely crack down on “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, oppose interference by external forces, and safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He noted the importance of upholding the concept that “both sides of the Strait are one family,” ensuring smooth and convenient personnel exchanges, and expanding people-to-people and grassroots exchanges. He called for supporting Taiwan residents, especially the youth, to study, work, and live on the mainland, while encouraging both sides to jointly promote Chinese culture and foster spiritual harmony among compatriots. Efforts should be made to support mainland-based Taiwan businessmen and enterprises, improve policies and measures that benefit them, and deepen cross-Strait integrated development, allowing compatriots on both sides to share the opportunities and fruits of Chinese-style modernization. But again, we do not know the full content of his speech. It does make sense that they present a more positive approach given the political trends in Taiwan that they seem to believe are moving against President Lai and the DPP.

A Hong Kong court sentenced UK citizen Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison. Six other Apple Daily staffers got sentences ranging from 6 years and 9 months to 10 months. Two activists were also sentenced to long jail terms. For 78 year old Lai this is a life sentence. His only hope of freedom is likely some sort of humanitarian release negotiated by US President Trump.

A guest post by Holly Snape on the Chairman Responsibility System - On the same day the news hit that Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli had been placed under investigation, a PLA Daily editorial accused the two men of “seriously trampling on and harming the Chairman Responsibility System” (严重践踏破坏军委主席负责制)1. This is largely viewed as a claim of their having “undermined Xi’s authority” or challenged his desire for personalized power. Put aside whether Zhang and Liu did in fact do any “trampling.” What is this “System”? Why does it matter? Does it really boil down to a statement of who’s the boss? And why should it be factored into calculations about the implications of Zhang and Liu’s downfall? For Xi, the Chairman Responsibility System (中央军委主席负责制) is a big deal. He has been incrementally building it for 13 years. Over this time, dozens of formal documents have been issued and revised and wave after wave of activity has sought to hammer home new rules and demand compliance.

The PRC is opening its economic coercion toolbox to punish Panama for the court decision to expropriate the two CK Hutchison port facilities. Bloomberg broke the story: China is asking state firms to halt talks over new projects in Panama..Beijing has also asked shipping companies to consider rerouting cargo through other ports if it doesn’t result in significant extra costs..China’s customs authorities are also stepping up inspections on Panamanian imports such as bananas and coffee Panama switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC in 2017. Is Taiwan preparing an offer to induce Panama to switch back?

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Xi Jinping had a busy Wednesday, holding a video call with Russian President Putin, a phone call with US President Trump, and a meeting with Le Hoai Trung, Vietnam’s foreign minister and a special envoy of Vietnam’s General Secretary To Lam.

Since the January 25 PLA Daily editorial on the Zhang Youxia-Liu Zhenli case, there have been three follow-on commentaries in the PLA Daily about the case, but we still have no reliable information about what they actually did. The New York Times throws more cold water on the idea that Zhang was giving the US nuclear secrets: Current and former U.S. officials, however, said that they were unaware of General Zhang having been a U.S. intelligence asset or having handed over nuclear information. They also said they had not detected an internal campaign in Beijing to spread the word among officials that General Zhang was a spy for the United States.

A recording from Bill Bishop and Tara Palmeri's live video

Sinification is a terrific resource for understanding how domestic and international affairs are being debated by the Chinese establishment, and for getting a better sense of where China may be heading. Sinification’s team track, translate, and analyze key debates shaping thought and policy in China, adding the context needed to understand why they matter. I’m very pleased to be able to share this year’s first edition with Sinocism readers. In 2026, Sinocism and Sinification will cooperate on monthly editions for Sinocism’s subscribers, highlighting the internal discussions and policy thinking that matter in a system that remains so stubbornly opaque. More on Sinification, including weekly subscription options, is available here. — Bill

Xi met with United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Beijing Thursday. Starmer is now the second NATO and Five Eyes leader to meet with Xi in less than two weeks. So far Starmer has not made as stark a declaration of the changing world as Canadian PM Carney did, but Xi and his team must be very pleased with the opportunities arising with longstanding American allies. The visit validates China’s push for a “multipolar” world order. Xi’s comment that major powers must “take the lead” in upholding international law was clearly a thinly veiled swipe at the US.

On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the news that the rumors were true, and CMC members Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for corruption. Topics include: The timing of the announcement from the Defense Ministry, why this weekend’s news inspired such a volume of reactions around the world, a history of Xi’s crackdowns on the PLA, questions about rumors of a coup against Xi, reports that Zhang Youxia was working with the U.S., the PLA corruption heyday and its implications for what might come next, and various ways to think about the implications for Taiwan. At the end: The first batch of H-200s is approved for purchase, and the TikTok sale is approved as users lash out with censorship claims.

We had a great discussion about his personal experience shepherding Zhang Youxia around the US many years ago, his work on US-China military-to-military relations, and the disappearance in 2023 of South China Morning Post reporter Minnie Chan.

Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli - There is nothing more in official media about the case, and otherwise it seems like business as usual. We are all left to speculate about what happened and what it means. We spent most of this week’s episode of Sharp China talking about this case; look for it in your inbox in less than twelve hours. This section includes some of the more interesting English-language discussion of the case I have found so far. We still have no idea what really happened.

We still have no more concrete information than we had Saturday about the Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli case. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the official internal briefing he was accused of leaking nuclear weapons secrets to the US. As I wrote Saturday, the official, internal story is not always the truth about what happened, so just because they may be telling other officials he leaked nuclear secrets does not mean he actually did, and as much as I would live to believe the US government is that good at getting intelligence, I am skeptical Zhang was leaking to the US. But it might make for a useful charge internally, as it shows him to be an even greater villain than if he were simply corrupt, as he was working for the main enemy.