Sinocism

Wang Yi had another call with his Iranian counterpart and called for “restoring normal passage” through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the readout Wang told Araghchi that “The sovereign security and legitimate rights and interests of Iran as a littoral state of the Strait of Hormuz should be respected and upheld; at the same time, freedom of navigation and safety through this internationally used strait must also be guaranteed, and restoring normal passage through the strait is the unanimous call of the international community”

The Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Tuesday promised “resolute countermeasures” if the Trump Administration added new tariffs on China for “military product exports”. It is not clear if the recent US media reports about the PRC considering sending or having already sent weapons systems to Iran are correct, but if they are then Trump has put himself in a bind. Either he follows through with the tariff threat and likely blows up the Busan understanding and the upcoming summit, or he looks like a paper tiger. Meanwhile, Reuters reports Treasury Secretary “Bessent said on Tuesday ​that China had been an ‌unreliable global partner during the Middle East war by hoarding oil ​supplies and limiting exports of ​certain goods, much as they ⁠hoarded medical supplies during the ​pandemic”, and sanctions may be coming for banks, including PRC ones

Three years after “people’s leader” was quietly cooled, the term is back across the provincial Party press — and in People’s Daily

Premier Li signed a decree of the State Council to publish a new set of rules on countering foreign states’ unlawful extraterritorial jurisdiction measures. These new regulations on countering foreign extraterritorial jurisdiction go well beyond general principles. Articles 5 and 6 lay out a concrete institutional mechanism that makes Beijing’s blocking framework significantly more operational than anything that existed under the 2021 Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law alone. The regulations establish a formal interagency “working mechanism” to coordinate responses to what Beijing terms “improper” foreign extraterritorial jurisdiction. The State Council’s rule-of-law department is tasked with leading the identification process, with authority to investigate, consult externally, and publicly designate specific foreign measures as improper. The criteria for identification are broad and politically flexible, covering violations of international law, insufficient nexus between the regulated conduct and the foreign state, and harm to China’s sovereignty, security, development interests, or the rights of Chinese citizens and organizations. The most challenging provision may be the blanket prohibition on implementing or assisting in implementing designated foreign measures, combined with an exemption application process. Chinese citizens and organizations that need to comply with a foreign measure for “special circumstances” must apply to the State Council’s rule-of-law department, provide justification, and receive approval through the working mechanism before doing so. This seems to mean that once Beijing designates a foreign measure, compliance becomes illegal absent government permission.

Apologies but need to take a personal day.

Show Notes:

There appears to be a ceasefire in the war, though already there have been violations. According to President Trump. China played a role in convincing Iran to agree to the cease fire, though so far official channels in China have given no details of what exactly China may have done to push Iran towards the agreement. Trump also posted that that “A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately”, which will be awkward for US-China relations, and his visit to China next month, if he really follows through.

- China and Russia vetoed a watered-down United Nations Security Council resolution put forward by Bahrain to encourage countries to work together to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. PRC ambassador to the UN explained why they vetoed the resolution, citing in part President Trump’s post early today

More than a month on, early scepticism about US regime-change prospects in Iran has hardened into a feeling somewhere between consternation and schadenfreude, with most analysts now framing the situation as a quagmire. The dominant motif is Trump’s “tiger-riding predicament” [骑虎难下]—meaning that it is easier to climb on a tiger than to dismount and easier to start a war than to end one. Which makes it refreshing to read CFAU professor Shi Zhan and former Brookings “returnee scholar” Li Cheng urging caution on US failure narratives and dismissing comparisons to the post-9/11 strategic distraction from China. On the more familiar hawkish side we have Wang Jiangyu, who calls this “the last war America can launch with any semblance of dignity”.

Wang Yi has been very busy working the phones about the Iran crisis over the last 24 hours, holding calls with the German, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain Foreign Ministers and the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Wang has also spoken with the Iranian FM in recent days, but I do not believe he has spoken with his Israeli and American counterparts. Perhaps this is the moment China can play a constructive role in opening the Strait of Hormuz, but so far they are blocking a Bahraini UN resolution to reopen the Strait so I am skeptical.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Li Qiang examined nuclear power, hydropower, and other equipment and core components, encouraging the enterprises to target the frontiers of science and technology and market demand, promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with manufacturing, and continuously achieve new breakthroughs in clean energy equipment manufacturing and other fields...Li Qiang examined nuclear power, hydropower, and other equipment and core components, encouraging the enterprises to target the frontiers of science and technology and market demand, promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with manufacturing, and continuously achieve new breakthroughs in clean energy equipment manufacturing and other fields.

The People’s Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee held its Q1 2026 “Routine Meeting.” Compared with the Q4 2025 statement, the Q1 2026 meeting adjusted its assessment of the external environment. The characterization of global economic momentum shifted from “insufficient” to “weak,” and the language on external disruptions moved from “increasing trade barriers” to geopolitical and economic/trade conflicts occurring “frequently and repeatedly” — likely a reference to the Middle East situation and escalating trade friction. On the domestic side, the meeting dropped the Q4 formulation of the “prominent contradiction” of strong supply and weak demand, while adding “external shocks” as a newly named and discrete challenge alongside the persistent demand weakness.

KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wen will head a delegation to visit Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing from April 7 to 12. It is not confirmed that she will meet with Xi Jinping, but that is the expectation, especially since the PRC announcement of the visit stated “CPC Central Committee and General Secretary Xi Jinping Welcome and Invite KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wen to Lead a Delegation Visit”. It is not clear how well her visit will go over inside the KMT, but we should all hope that through Cheng Beijing continues to see prospects for some sort of peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, even if she probably can not deliver what Beijing wants.

Tokyo embassy incident - Officials and propaganda channels are hyping up the intrusion of the knife-wielding Japanese soldier into the PRC embassy in Tokyo to support the campaign since November to criticize Japan for resurgent “militarism”. He sounds mentally ill, and while it is obviously a bad incident no one was hurt, unlike the 2024 knife attack on a school bus in Suzhou that left a child injured and a Chinese woman dead. In that case the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “was an isolated incident…Such isolated incidents could happen in any country in the world.” But in this case MoFa said “the incident once again highlighted the danger of the rampant spread of far-right impact and neo-militarism in the country. It also reveals the toxicity of the Japanese government’s erroneous policies on vital issues concerning China-Japan relations such as history and Taiwan.”

The Iran war should be over by May 13th, if that is the condition for President Trump’s visit to China to meet Xi Jinping. Earlier today Trump posted that he will meet President Xi in Beijing May 14-15. It is interesting that Trump refers to Xi as “President”, the preferred title for foreign meetings, while Secretary of Treasury Bessent calls Xi “Party chair”, a role that does not exist. US-China cooperation on fentanyl continues, with a new indictment “against six Chinese nationals and two Chinese pharmaceutical companies in narcotics and money laundering conspiracies involving chemical agents used to manufacture and cut fentanyl. Three defendants are also charged with attempting to provide material support to a Mexican drug cartel.” The Department of Justice announcement of the indictments cxredited PRC cooperation: “China’s Ministry of Public Security provided the FBI with critical intelligence that helped advance its understanding and investigation of Shandong Believe Chemical Company and its criminal network.” Last week, the PRC announced that several people were arrested in Wuhan for “crimes involving fentanyl precursor chemical”, and that some were caught by police “acting on leads provided by US counternarcotics authorities”.

Show Notes:

Japan-China - There is a new diplomatic incident between Japan and China. A man claining to be a member of the Self-Defence Forces went over the wall of the PRC embassy in Tokyo and according to the Chinese statement “threatened to ‌kill Chinese diplomats in the so-called ‘name of god’”. The PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tuesday that “the incident once again highlighted the danger of the rampant spread of far-right impact and neo-militarism in the country. It also reveals the toxicity of the Japanese government’s erroneous policies on vital issues concerning China-Japan relations such as history and Taiwan”.

Xi took three PBSC members - Li Qiang, Cai Qi and Ding Xuexiang - and three other Politburo members - He Lifeng, Yin Li, and Chen Min’er - to inspect Xiong’an, his fourth visit to the new city since 2017. It is interesting signal to make this his first inspection tour after the Two sessions and launch of the 15th Five Year Plan. There can be no doubts abut the decision to build Xiong’an: Xi…emphasized that under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee and through the joint efforts of all parties, the construction and development of the Xiong’an New Area have achieved major phased results. Practice has fully proven that the Central Committee’s decision to build the Xiong’an New Area is completely correct, and the work in all aspects has been solid and effective.

Show Notes: