Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) My goal is to make economic policy and macroeconomics better.
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Consumer Sentiment Isn't Politics, but Politics Is Reshaping It
by Claudia Sahm on June 1, 2026A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path.
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Words That Mattered: Fed Chair Jay Powell
by Claudia Sahm on May 15, 2026Today, May 15, is Jay Powell’s final day as Fed Chair.
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Signs of Stability, Signs of Strain
by Claudia Sahm on May 7, 2026April's Jobs Day is Friday.
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A Fed Day for the History Books
by Claudia Sahm on April 28, 2026After eight years, Wednesday will be the last time that Powell steps up to the podium as Fed Chair.
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Fed Chair Apprentice
by Claudia Sahm on April 21, 2026Tuesday, April 21, is a day Kevin Warsh has long awaited: his Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair.
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Whiplash Economy
by Claudia Sahm on April 17, 2026Expect the unexpected has become the most useful rule of thumb for the economy.
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Powell Has Been Here Before
by Claudia Sahm on March 18, 2026It’s three weeks into the war in Iran, and when the dust settles after today’s Fed meeting, the potential economic costs are likely to feel more real.
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More Questions Than Answers: Thinking Through Recession Risks
by Claudia Sahm on March 13, 2026Events are moving fast in the Middle East.
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Trust in Numbers
by Claudia Sahm on February 20, 2026U.S. economic statistics are not being manipulated, but underinvestment has intensified.
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Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
by Claudia Sahm on February 11, 2026Today’s employment report confirmed that payroll growth stalled last year.
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A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
by Claudia Sahm on February 10, 2026Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.
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Kevin Warsh
by Claudia Sahm on February 1, 2026Last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair.
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Jay Powell isn't enough to save the Fed
by Claudia Sahm on January 16, 2026Another week, another attack on the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration.
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There are no shortcuts to affordability
by Claudia Sahm on December 18, 2025As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.
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The Future of Data
by Claudia Sahm on December 5, 2025Today should have been Jobs Day, with the November employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the federal statistical agencies are still working through delays due to the 43-day government shutdown that ended last month.
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A Curious Kind of Cycle
by Claudia Sahm on November 3, 2025Today’s post is an excerpt of a talk I gave last week at the Forecasters Club of New York.
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Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court
by Claudia Sahm on October 2, 2025The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.
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Fed today, Fed tomorrow
by Claudia Sahm on September 26, 2025Fed Chair Powell has warned that there are “no risk-free paths now.” He’s referring to the challenging situation for the Fed with the risk of inflation persistently above target and the risk of employment weakening.
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Who will be in charge of interest rates?
by Claudia Sahm on September 4, 2025Fed independence is a question of power.
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Framing up the next move in monetary policy: Powell at Jackson Hole
by Claudia Sahm on August 18, 2025The main event of the week in economic policy may sound bland: “Economic Outlook and Framework Review.” However, Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole will be anything but bland.
