Stay-At-Home Macro

Warsh's explanation of the July hold was not the Committee's. Heading into September, the FOMC minutes have the reaction function that matters.

Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech is a test of the Chair, and of the Fed's credibility.

Your questions on Warsh, the federal debt, inflation and labor data, the Fed's design, and public speaking

A Q&A for paid subscribers. Questions by Wednesday, answers next weekend.

This week, Warsh affirmed PCE inflation as the Fed's target, then put that yardstick on the chopping block.

The FOMC statement, not the press conference, may be the best window into where the Fed is headed. Here's my mockup for Wednesday.

Redefining inflation is not the way to achieve price stability.

The June FOMC minutes laid out two scenarios, and the committee is split right down the middle on the outlook for inflation.

Independence, inflation, and communication

Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost.

Warsh says he wants one, inflation demands it, and the dot plot is how we'd see it.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently argued for alternative ways of looking at inflation, such as trimmed means or medians, which, in his words, capture the “underlying inflation rate” and “not … the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef.” Before evaluating his claims, it is useful to explore the distribution of inflation and see what appears to be driving inflation.

A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path.

Today, May 15, is Jay Powell’s final day as Fed Chair.

April's Jobs Day is Friday.

After eight years, Wednesday will be the last time that Powell steps up to the podium as Fed Chair.

Tuesday, April 21, is a day Kevin Warsh has long awaited: his Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair.

Expect the unexpected has become the most useful rule of thumb for the economy.

It’s three weeks into the war in Iran, and when the dust settles after today’s Fed meeting, the potential economic costs are likely to feel more real.

Events are moving fast in the Middle East.