Data expert G. Elliott Morris argues that although Matt Van Epps technically “held” the seat for the Republicans, his narrow ~9-point win represents a massive 13-point swing toward Democrats since 2024 — turning what used to be a safely red district into a once-pink blush of blue. He warns that if similar swings occur in 2026, the Democratic Party could not only retake the House but even put the Senate in play — making this “safe seat” result a major warning light for the GOP.
