Silver Bulletin Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
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Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
by Nate Silver on March 1, 2026
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
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How popular is Donald Trump?
by Nate Silver on March 1, 2026
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
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How popular is Elon Musk?
by Nate Silver on March 1, 2026
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
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13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War
by Nate Silver on February 28, 2026
The future is here, whether you're ready or not.
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Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary?
by Eli McKown-Dawson on February 26, 2026
Nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge. So why are prediction markets so bullish on Talarico?
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Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?
by Eli McKown-Dawson on February 24, 2026
The Democratic primary is contentious, but the winner might get a shot at the sort of candidate who cost the GOP the Senate in 2022.
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Which 2028 Democrats have the best electoral track record?
by Nate Silver on February 20, 2026
Hint: Not Gavin Newsom.
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NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings III
by Nate Silver on February 19, 2026
Our 3 experts look 10 years ahead to rank all 30 NBA teams in future title odds.
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SBSQ #29: Will AI terminate democracy? And why did Gallup terminate its approval ratings?
by Nate Silver on February 16, 2026
The case for why AI will produce greater economic and political inequality. Plus, what's up with Gallup?
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Can Democrats escape their Florida death spiral?
by Eli McKown-Dawson on February 13, 2026
Why the Sunshine State is no longer a swing state.
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The singularity won't be gentle
by Nate Silver on February 11, 2026
If AI is even half as transformational as Silicon Valley assumes, politics will never be the same again.
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QBERT NFL quarterback ratings
by Nate Silver on February 10, 2026
Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.
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Kamala Harris has Liz Cheney Syndrome
by Nate Silver on February 9, 2026
Centrists think Harris is a leftist, and leftists think she’s a centrist. But she’s not the only candidate with this sort of problem.
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Job listing: Associate Editor
by Nate Silver on February 9, 2026
Silver Bulletin is hiring, again.
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The Silver Bulletin Super Bowl LX preview
by Nate Silver on February 4, 2026
Are the Seahawks and Patriots overachievers, or actually good? Our XL-sized take on LX.
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The sad and self-inflicted decline of the Washington Post, in one chart
by Nate Silver on February 4, 2026
Under Jeff Bezos, the paper retreated from the adversarial, anti-Trump posture that helped fuel its growth. And now its influence has fallen sharply.
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ELWAY NFL projections: Super Bowl
by Nate Silver on February 2, 2026
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
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Don't discount American democracy's resilience
by Nate Silver on February 2, 2026
The U.S. has a highly popular democratic tradition, even as it battles an authoritarian element.
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2028 Democratic primary draft #2
by Nate Silver on January 29, 2026
Plus, more commentary on Minneapolis from my live show with Galen Druke and Clare Malone.
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Trump is losing normies on immigration
by Nate Silver on January 25, 2026
Americans might want more border enforcement, but they don't want ICE agents killing civilians.






