Silver Bulletin

The polling industry doesn't get as much criticism in years like 2025 when surveys overestimate Republicans — but this can be a problem, too.

All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2025.

The February 2025 version of the Silver Bulletin pollster ratings created after the 2024 presidential election.

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.

Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl probabilities, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.

Who's the best QB in the NFL? And the worst? Our advanced statistical ratings on every passer's past, present, and future.

What will it take for the new mayor to maintain a winning coalition?

Our official Silver Bulletin/ELWAY NFL playoff preview.

Plus, is Venezuela a political liability for Trump?

My favorite posts of 2025, some notes on the business, and a thank you to our readers.

For Christmas, I’m giving you a listicle.

The 2-hour rule is usually a myth.

There's not a recession or a pandemic, but visitors are down almost 8 percent this year. What's going wrong?

No longer just a Substack: it's one of the 3 emerging factions of the Democratic Party.

Jasmine Crockett probably isn’t an optimal Senate candidate. But Democratic voters are angry, and “when we fight, we win” will be a compelling message in the primaries.

Redistricting 201. Plus, do NFL teams understand game theory? And, should the Knicks trade for Giannis?

The Democratic Party should move on from people who still can't admit how badly they screwed up.

They became more Trump-curious in 2024. But mostly, they’re anti-establishment types who dislike politics until you threaten their livelihoods.

The Houston Rockets are playing unconventional basketball, but their young core is blasting off.