Strength in Numbers

They care most about affordability, and disapprove of Trump’s job as president at much higher rate than engaged voters — including among Republicans

Disaffected Trump voters like the man less than motivated MAGA partisans

The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t think he’s focused on affordability

Traditional polling is dead. A new paradigm of public opinion research has high uncertainty, and pollsters need to do a better job communicating about error.

For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying off algorithmic social media in 2026.

Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it

From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice

81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they write leadership should "put regular people first”

Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.

Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?

Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?

The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)

Plus, both parties are now running against data centers. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.

It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t

We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys

This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to

The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we think.

A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates

Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving defection from "establishment" picks

Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way