Strength in Numbers

News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right

Your weekly political data roundup for December 7, 2025

43% of Republicans say he isn't keeping his promises on the economy

Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play

All politics is affordability now

A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling

Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.

Your weekly political data roundup for November 23, 2025

Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026, Democrats could see a larger "blue wave" than in 2018.

Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.

Plus: Voters see both parties as out of touch, but for different reasons; Trump hits new low on pocketbook issues; Large majorities oppose ending ACA subsidies and SNAP, support taxing high earners

Your weekly political data roundup for November 16, 2025

A plurality of voters approve of the deal to end the government shutdown. Democrats have an opportunity to claim they saved SNAP & other government programs, which could help repair the party's image

Platforms optimized for engagement warp our politics, erode attention, and harm our wellbeing. Here’s how I minimize time on the (anti‑)social web.

The president's numbers on prices are where Biden's were during peak inflation in 2022-23.

The Mayor-elect drove historic turnout and a historically young electorate. Plus: Democrats made inroads with Trump supporters Tuesday; The role of cable news in Trump's 2024 win; + more!

Paul asks me about what just happened in the 2025 elections, and I explain why Democratic elites and The New York Times learned the wrong lesson from 2024

The 2025 election, much like 2024, was about economic anxiety and anti-incumbent sentiment — and offers few lessons about the ideological direction of the Democratic Party

Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated

Democrats outran their polls and swept statewide races from Georgia to New Jersey, on an agenda of affordability and a broad anti-Trump backlash